• Outbreaks of foodborne illness resulting from consumption of vegetables contaminated by Escherichia coli O157-containing soils are increasing.

• The pathogen can enter the soil through contaminated irrigation water or manure. If conditions are favourable, it can rapidly multiply.

• We used laboratory experiments to develop a model that describes the effect of temperature on the growth of two outbreak-related E. coli strains in soil.

• The model was applied to a range of climate change scenarios to project future E. coli growth rates in Scottish soil.

• Our projections showed that the warmer temperatures expected for Scotland could cause the hourly growth rate of E. coli in soils to increase by up to 50%.

• The increased growth potential could lead to an increased risk of transmission of E. coli to fresh produce crops to levels exceeding the minimum dose required for symptomatic infection.