• Potatoes are a leading Scottish product with an estimated sector value of around £170 million.

• In Scotland, potato cyst nematodes (PCN) are the second most economically important pest or disease of potato after late blight.

• In this study, data on the distribution of Scottish potato crop locations were combined with climate change data and a newly developed empirical model for temperature-dependent hatching and female survival in the two PCN species (Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis). These were used to project the future risk posed to potato crops from PCN for a range of time periods and CO2 emissions scenarios.

• We found that projected increases in soil temperature will result in increased hatching and survival of mature females of both PCN species, but the projected risk for G. rostochiensis was much greater.

• There was considerable geographic variation in projected PCN risk among northern, western, and eastern potato crop locations.

• To guide adaptation strategies, we investigated the potential impact of improved pest management and climate-change driven shifts in the cropping season on PCN risk.

• We found that soil infestation levels would have to be reduced by approximately 25 and 55% for G. pallida and G. rostochiensis, respectively, in order to negate projected increases in PCN risk.

• The magnitude of risk reduction achieved by planting potato crops one month earlier was considerable under all climate change scenarios.